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Checking Back
By Mary Beth Stanek
Director, Environment Energy and Safety Policy
Thanks to all of you for your comments regarding my ethanol myth piece that was posted awhile back.
I especially want to thank Gary for all of his analysis shared with readers. He is right about keeping the dialogue going and we will do our best at this end to post in a more timely manner.
For this round, let’s get to some of the comments, then talk a bit more on what we are doing at GM to promote biofuels.
There were a number of comments about net energy balance, researchers and their study parameters. As you know from our posts, we do support the Department of Energy work at Argonne National Labs because they evaluated a number of studies and identified what many believe to be a reasonable set of input and output data. We viewed the Argonne parameters as being more in line with true input and output variables. I do agree that researchers on this subject are using varied inputs and outputs. By and large, the majority researchers on this subject view corn ethanol production as having a positive net energy balance. I would encourage everyone to look at a couple of reports including Dr. Michael Wang’s net energy balance report. I would also encourage a quick review of Science from Jan. 27, 2006, to look at their findings as well.
Several bloggers wrote about the rising costs of food and feed. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has a great deal of information on this subject and I encourage everyone to reach out to USDA to inquire about these issues. We did, and found that prices are increasing at about the rate of inflation. The price of a bushel of corn spiked in February 2006, and it was mostly a fear of a lower carryover in the annual corn production, which typically is about 1 billion bushels. You know from following the Chicago Board of Trade that prices have fallen significantly since that time. In fact, the corn harvest in 2007 was the largest in 75 years and 26 percent larger than 2006, according to the USDA. We can meet our food, feed, fuel, export requirements and carryover figures very easily and that supports normalized bushel pricing.
It is also worth mentioning that worldwide demand for dairy and beef products are contributing more to increased food and feed prices than ethanol production. It should also be noted that cattle co-located near ethanol facilities benefit from affordable high-protein distillers grain for feed, which is a byproduct of ethanol production. Collocation keeps prices down for both food and fuel production. There are several articles on global demand as the world economy continues to grow and the use of ethanol byproducts for animal feed and can be found through regular search engines.
I was pleased to see a comment about the need to grow the E85 infrastructure. I believe it can be done by bringing business and government together to make it happen. GM has worked with several ethanol producers and fuel retailers to help find grant funds and to co-market E85 stations. To date, we have programs in 14 states and have some role in introducing 270 new E85 pumps that are helping to target for reduced CO2 and less use of fossil fuel. One writer indicated that lived 50 miles away from the nearest E85 station. You can be confident that more E85 fuel will be available in the remaining months of 2007 and throughout 2008 now that United Laboratories (UL) has approved dispensing equipment. Even during this time, businesses and governments have been working to nearly double the number of stations offering E85 since just last year.
Another writer wondered whether we were basing our comments on biased sources. At GM, we focus on obtaining information from credible sources including federal agencies, national laboratories and research institutions. GM itself has been working on biofuels for more than 25 years and has research labs and partnerships worldwide, especially in the area of biomass. Our scientists have a vast network of information linked with known leaders in this field.
Ethanol does reduce fossil fuel use when blended at high levels such as E85. Ethanol is renewable in that it does come from bio materials. Increasingly we will see ethanol from cellulose, which is also bio-based.
There was a very good comment posted about how much ethanol can offset fossil fuel use in the United States. The U.S. consumes about 140 billion gallons of transportation energy annually. That is forecasted to grow to 180 billion gallons of energy a year in 2030. We need to reduce our use through a variety of methods including vehicle efficiency, driving behavior (loads, acceleration, etc.), advanced technologies such as two-mode hybrids, fuel cell vehicles and biofuels. We worked cooperatively with the University of Toronto, and we believe that as much as 30 percent of the energy needed for transportation in the 2020 timeframe can be provided by biomass-based biofuels. This can only happen if we continue support research that is focused on sustainable biofuels.
A quick comment on tractors. We don’t build them, but we do know that other engines manufacturers are very active in this space assessing and increasing biofuel use.
Lastly, our team has been out in cities near you promoting E85. We just wrapped up the very successful E85 Days of Summer Tour, which generated more than 24 million media impressions in the seven cities we visited in seven weeks. We are now out on the road with the E85 Fall Kickoff. We began in Pittsburgh and will be in three Wisconsin cities this week. Our other stops include Atlanta, Denver, Tucson, and Phoenix. We have been meeting with consumers, legislators, media and educators. The response has been great. Where possible, we are activating new stations and supporting existing E85 infrastructure.
Thanks for writing.
Make sure to check back with Donna McLallen, too.
Posted by Editor on October 22, 2007 12:58 PM
Comments
You didn't answer a very important question: Why should I buy a vehicle that gets 25 mpg (or less) on E85, which I can't find anywhere, when I could buy a vehicle that gets 45 mpg on gasoline, which is readily available?
To put it another way: Why is GM only putting fuel saving technology into its large vehicles? This not only goes for Flex Fuel vehicles, which are of dubious environmental benefit, but also its hybrids. Why do the only hybrids available from GM barely get more than 30 mpg?
Posted by: Paul on October 22, 2007 3:12 PM
Because 25 mpg on E85 is 167 mpg of gasoline. A 45 mpg hybrid can't come even close to that.
Last time I checked very few compact car buyers were prepared to pay extra for the Civic hybrid. The cost v fuel saving was too great a hurdle. The extra cost of hybrid technology has less of an impact on buyers on larger, more expensive vehicles, and the potential fuel saving is far greater.
GM is putting fuel-saving technology into all of it's vehicles though. The company was the first to offer a Dual-VVT V6 (a few months ahead of Toyota), the first to offer a Dual-VVT 4-cylinder in a non-luxury car (years before Toyota), the first to offer direct-injection in a non-luxury vehicle in North America (now three with more to be announced next week), and the first anywhere to offer a dual-VVT, direct injection 4-cylinder (followed so far only by BMW—Alfa Romeo's two are produced by GM using the standard GM 4-cylinder aluminum engine block).
Posted by: Andrew Charles on October 23, 2007 3:25 AM
Because 25 mpg on E85 is 167 mpg of gasoline. A 45 mpg hybrid can't come even close to that.
This is wrong in terms of carbon emissions and costs to the consumer. Ethanol refineries use a lot of energy, mostly from coal, and ethanol costs more per gallon than gasoline and results in lower fuel economy. Again, why should I buy a car that gets 25 mpg on ethanol when it would save me more money buying a car that gets 45 mpg on gasoline.
To put it another way: When is GM going to produce a car that gets 45 mpg on E85?
GM is putting fuel-saving technology into all of it's vehicles though.
And yet their Aveo still only gets 34 miles per gallon, and the Astra only gets 31.
Posted by: Paul on October 23, 2007 10:04 PM
Paul asked: "You didn't answer a very important question: Why should I buy a vehicle that gets 25 mpg (or less) on E85, which I can't find anywhere, when I could buy a vehicle that gets 45 mpg on gasoline, which is readily available?"
Excellent point Paul, she did dodge that question. However, we both already know the answer: It's because of the loophole built into the methodology for computing CAFE.
That loophole gives GM a tremendous incentive to convert heavy trucks and SUVs to flex-fuel. The big jump in rated mileage helps GM avoid paying CAFE penalties, even though the actual mileage those heavy vehicles get is much reduced when burning E85.
On the other hand, there is very little advantage in converting light, already fuel efficient cars to flex-fuel.
If the flex-fuel loophole opportunity didn't exist, I doubt GM would spend any money converting their heavy SUVs and trucks to burn E85, nor would GM be sending Mary Beth and Donna around the country marketing those vehicles.
The truth is converting heavy vehicles to burn E85 helps GM's bottom line, even when their owners never put a drop of E85 into them. (And as I explained to Donna, flex-fuel owners actually use less fossil fuels if they burn only straight gasoline.)
Best,
Gary
Posted by: Gary Dikkers on October 24, 2007 12:05 AM
The truth is converting heavy vehicles to burn E85 helps GM's bottom line, even when their owners never put a drop of E85 into them.
It also helps the oil company's bottom line. All they have to do is switch from selling gasoline to E85. If I bought a car that gets 45 mpg versus one that gets 25 mpg, the oil companies get less money from me, regardless of the fuel I use.
So GM makes out on selling big cars with E85 because the profit margins are higher, and the oil companies make out because they're selling us more fuel.
Posted by: Paul on October 24, 2007 1:14 PM
Can someone point me to a study as to how much fuel a Toyota Prius saves per year, and then how much does GM's hybrid buses save per year?? It seems to me that these buses are in the optimal environment for hybrid technology!! Thanks
Posted by: Tyler tom on October 24, 2007 1:51 PM
"And yet their Aveo still only gets 34 miles per gallon, and the Astra only gets 31." - Paul
Hi Paul,
31 mpg is about 7.5 liters/100 km, as we calculate in Europe. I can't think of any comparable Japanese sedan sold over here, getting a significantly better mileage. One of the main reasons for Germans to buying an Opel is their fuel-efficiency and that's not only limited to Diesels. Fact: GM's European market-share (especially Opel and Chevrolet) is growing faster than Toyota's. Ask yourself "why". As we used to visit the Canary Islands for vacation, I almost saw more Aveo's there, than Volkswagens in Germany.
Posted by: Gereon Langlitz (Germany) on October 24, 2007 4:51 PM
In a previous post, Gary Dikkers stated that burning ethanol blends does not reduce the amount of gasoline burned, based on extrapolation of experience with putting E10 in his Sonoma. Gary, according to your logic, a similar vehicle burning E85 would get less than 5 mpg. And based on your Minnesota-vs.-Wisconsin calculations (which ignore all contributing factors other than ethanol), it would get 0 mpg. Clearly this is not the case with flexible fuel vehicles. Although mileage is reduced due to ethanol having lower energy content than gasoline, the ethanol still contributes energy and reduces the amount of gasoline consumed.
In another post, you disagreed with Ms. Stanek’s statement that gasoline has a net energy of .87. You said that the energy return on energy invested of gasoline is 5:1 to 10:1 because of the free energy that Mother Nature put into the crude oil. By this logic, the energy used to pump, refine, and transport the gasoline is also free, as is the energy required to make ethanol. If it’s all free, why are we making such a big deal about it? So let’s not argue about the definitions of net energy, process efficiency, or EROEI. The point is that to burn a gallon of gas in your car, more than a gallon (energy equivalent) has to be taken out of the ground, whereas burning a gallon-equivalent of ethanol requires less than a gallon-equivalent from the ground. And in the long run, if some of that ethanol or other forms of renewable energy are used to make the ethanol, the numbers become even more favorable.
Posted by: Frank Meinert on October 25, 2007 11:52 AM
Ms. Stanek,
Impressed by ongoing research within academia and industry regarding identified shortcomings of existing biofuels.
The answer is clear, as only a finite amount of dinosaurs ever inhabited this planet, petroleum reserves are rapidly diminishing. Game over!
Renewable fuels WILL be the global future ...
Posted by: William R. Walling on October 25, 2007 10:58 PM
Fact: GM's European market-share (especially Opel and Chevrolet) is growing faster than Toyota's. Ask yourself "why". - Mr. Langlitz
Because they have engine and transmission combinations that get significantly better fuel economy than anything they release in the US. Also, the Chevrolet cars over there are significantly cheaper than a lot of the other options.
If GM brought the 1.7L CDI Astra 5-door with a six speed transmission to the US, I'd buy one in a heartbeat.
But what they brought over is underwhelming when it comes to comparisons to other cars in terms of engines and transmissions. Even the Nissan Versa, which also gets disappointing fuel economy, offers a CVT transmission.
This is particularly disheartening because the Opel Astra Diesel Hybrid concept is rated at nearly 60 mpg. Would I spend $25,000 on a compact car that gets 60mpg? Absolutely. Would other people? Judging by the success of the Prius, yes. Is GM ever going to produce that car in Europe, let alone the US? I'm not going to hold my breath.
But the profit margins on cars like that are small, and the margins on body-on-frame SUVs and large cars are big, which is why GM is pushing E85 in big cars and not increased fuel economy and smaller cars.
Toyota Prius saves per year, and then how much does GM's hybrid buses save per year?? It seems to me that these buses are in the optimal environment for hybrid technology!! - Tyler
So GM wouldn't mind if I never bought a car again and just took the bus everywhere?
Posted by: Paul on October 26, 2007 9:54 AM
Frank Meinert said: "...whereas burning a gallon-equivalent of ethanol requires less than a gallon-equivalent from the ground."
Mr Meinert,
Steady there big fellow, how do you figure a gallon equivalent of ethanol requires less than a gallon-equivalent out of the ground?
Nothing could be further from the truth. At every step of production from growing hybrid seed corn; to planting the seed; to cultivation; to applying fertilizer and ag chemicals; to harvesting; to transportating corn to ethanol plant; to grinding and milling; to fermentation; to distillation; making corn ethanol consumes unrenewable energy that someone has to pay for.
Making "renewable" corn ethanol consumes expensive unrenewable and irreplaceable energy (fossil fuels) at every step of the process.
On the other hand, with fossil fuels, Mother Nature grew the biomass from which the oil was formed (no hybrid seeds, no cultivation, and no harvesting required), and then Mother Nature turned that ancient biomass into oil over millions of years. (No grinding, no milling, and no fermentation required.)
All we have to do is find it, drill down to reach it, pump it out, and then transport it to a refinery.
For fossil fuels, most of the heavy lifting of growing the biomass and turning it into an energy dense liquid was gratis -- courtesy of Mother Nature.
The problem is, Mother Nature provided it, we found it, and are now quickly using it up. And the unfortunate truth is that using fossil fuels to grow corn and make ethanol just consumes those precious fossil fuels more rapidly.
Regards,
Gary Dikkers
Posted by: Gary Dikkers on October 28, 2007 9:58 PM
Mary Beth Stanek said: "Several bloggers wrote about the rising costs of food and feed."
Ms Stanek,
Perhaps you may be interested in this report from the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC). (The CIBC is roughly equivalent to one of the big American banks such as Chase or Bank of America.)
"America's policy of adding more ethanol to the nation's gas tanks in an effort to increase energy self-sufficiency will do little but drive food prices skywards," finds a new report from CIBC World Markets.
"Converting corn from food to fuel has, at best, dubious net energy benefits, but its impact on food prices, already significant, can only grow over time," says Jeff Rubin, Chief Economist and Chief Strategist at CIBC World Markets.
A digest of the entire report is at: Corn-based ethanol will fuel little more than inflation
Best regards,
Gary Dikkers
Posted by: Gary Dikkers on October 28, 2007 10:11 PM
i dont whether it is appropriate to post here but you should definitely look into some of issues consumers had with GM products at
http://www.my3cents.com/companyReview.cgi?compid=70&subcat=1
Posted by: ghent on November 2, 2007 10:50 PM
Mrs. Stanek
FYI
The second E-85 fueling site has opened 04-10-2008 in Metro Atlanta.
Safa Express branded BP
725 Grayson Highway
Lawrenceville, Georgia 30048
770-277-1119
Very Nice Looking store somewhat of a flag ship as to what's now happening here in Atlanta.
Give me your e-mail address and photos can be forwarded.
Tanks,
Zane Miller
770-780-2700
Posted by: Zane Miller on April 15, 2008 12:18 PM
I wasn't able to see or hear your show with Glen Beck. There is technology that is much better than the fuel cell. It is literally an onboard hydrogen generator that efficiently breaks down the water molecule into hydrogen and oxygen. This is ready for mass production and has EPA certification pending. Contact me, Paul at 480-252-4420 for more information. Are we waiting for the entire economy to collapse before we really do something?--Paul
Posted by: Paul Ray Millet on May 28, 2008 9:59 AM
